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解码2019年消费——分级+升级,消费在发力

时间:[2019-01-28 ] 信息来源:人民日报海外版
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  2018年,我国社会消费品零售总额380987亿元,比上年增长9.0%,全年最终消费支出对国内生产总值增长贡献率达76.2%,成为重要支撑力量。中央经济工作会议提出,促进形成强大国内市场。可以预见,2019年,消费仍将在国民经济中占据重要位置。

  消费关乎每个人的切身体验。在拥有近14亿人口的中国市场,如何让多样化消费需求得到满足,让老百姓吃得放心、穿得称心、用得舒心?2019年,中国消费怎么走?政府和市场主体怎么做?对此,多位专家和企业负责人进行了解读。

  消费趋势如何——

  “分级+升级”特点明显,不是“降级”

  自2018年下半年以来,关于消费升级还是降级的讨论不少。那么,当前消费整体情况究竟如何?

  “春江水暖鸭先知”,对于消费表现,企业最有发言权。在中国贸促会研究院日前举行的“以品质服务促进消费平稳增长”座谈会上,来自电商、线下零售和不同类型企业的有关负责人表达了相似的看法:一方面,消费个性化、多样化趋势尤其明显,即所谓的“分级”趋势;另一方面,所有不同层级的消费需求中,都蕴含着升级需求,消费升级乃是大势所趋。

  国家统计局1月21日公布的数据也印证了这一点。2018年,消费升级类商品较快增长,全年限额以上单位化妆品类、家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类商品零售额增速分别比限额以上社会消费品零售额增速高3.9、3.2和1.4个百分点。

  京东创新研究院高级总监崔之瑜认为,从电商角度看,微观上,消费呈现许多小的分化趋势,也就是需求的分化;宏观上,则有一些共性的升级特点,比如对品质服务的提升需求,对售前售后要求更多等。

  “站在实体店的角度看,我认为是消费升级。”罗森北京总经理车文焕这样总结。他举了几个数据,一是店铺数量,2016年、2017年,罗森在中国新开店铺数分别达到五六百家,2018年数量更多。据介绍,罗森在开店前会进行详细的盈亏测算,只有达到盈亏平衡才会开店,这意味着快速增长的店铺数背后有强劲的需求支撑;二是顾客数量,自2016年起,罗森每个店铺平均来店客数在1000人以上,且没有下降过;三是客单价保持基本稳定。“我们对于市场和明年的发展还是非常有信心的。”他说。

  怎么看待这种升级与分级并存的趋势?

  中国国际电子商务中心研究院院长李鸣涛认为,之所以能够谈论“分级”,在一定程度上也得益于电商发展。通过用户画像、消费习惯等基础数据,企业可以看到精准的消费群体划分,这是“分级”的依据。在这个基础上,每一级都呈现出消费升级的基本属性。

  国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所研究员任兴洲认为,消费升级突出体现在品质、安全和绿色三个层面,而消费分级源自不同收入、年龄结构、文化和地域的差异,由此带来不同的细分市场,这是未来线上线下最应关注的重点。

  增长挑战在哪——

  消费意愿、能力和信心,一个都不能少

  2018年以来,作为衡量消费的重要指标,社会消费品零售总额增速由前几年的两位数回落至个位数,有人由此担心消费动能与潜力。消费数据究竟该怎么看?

  任兴洲分析,2018年社会消费品零售总额的回落有几方面原因。一方面和经济增长相关,尤其受国际贸易关系的影响;另一方面整体增速主要受两大消费项目变动影响:一是汽车,受购置税优惠取消等因素影响,2018年汽车消费经历近30年来第一次负增长;二是家电,主要与房地产市场表现相关。二者均是构成社会消费品零售总额的重头,而其他消费项目变化并不太大。

  延续到2019年,消费增长有哪些挑战?如何破解?

  在李鸣涛看来,今年压力来源之一在于如何进一步激发消费信心,让消费者有消费意愿和能力。

  “促进形成强大的国内市场,从消费角度看,中央有措施。”任兴洲说,货币政策微调,2019年已实施降准,这将释放出巨大的货币效应;国家发改委表示将制定出台稳住汽车、家电等热点产品消费的措施,这是抓住了当前影响消费增速的主要方面,未来将有更多利好可期。

  同时,2019年消费表现还将受整体宏观经济表现;就业、收入、社会保障和供给侧端等因素影响。针对不同方面,相关部门已经拿出针对性举措。例如,人社部将从4个方面在扩大就业上下功夫,包括为企业减负担,裁员或者少裁员的企业,加大返还企业实际缴纳失业保险费的力度和幅度,最多可以返还50%;突出做好高校毕业生、农民工、退役军人等重点群体的就业创业工作;开展大规模的职业技能培训;加大对就业困难人员的就业援助等。

  中国贸促会研究院国际贸易研究部主任赵萍表示,随着就业、收入、税收等助力消费稳增长的相关政策落地,消费动能将不断累积。

  企业怎样行动——

  高品质、新技术,打动消费者要花心思

  近年来,消费业态经历快速变迁,新的模式技术和消费需求影响着企业的经营策略,也为企业带来新的课题。

  ——清晰用户画像,了解消费者。

  “现在都在说对顾客的分析和画像,但是真正怎么画、画得准不准确,这是一个问题。”北京超市发连锁股份有限公司董事长李燕川强调更清晰的用户画像的重要性。车文焕也表示,未来对顾客消费习惯的研究投入会越来越大,怎样精准把握顾客消费的变化将是重中之重。

  2018年超市发以“千店千面”的思路调整店面,基于每家店面的顾客群特征做针对性调整。李燕川举例,北京学院路店面周边年轻人多,就主打“科技+时尚”定位,设有照相、洗衣、打印等多种自助柜台,目前年轻客群占比达到54%;玉泉路店面老北京人较多,则着力打造京范儿,设计装饰采用窗花、黄墙绿瓦等元素,还引入红螺、同仁堂等店铺,富有地域化特征。

  ——提供品质商品、品质服务。

  天虹股份北京公司总经理顾立群介绍,天虹对商品实行七重品质保障,所有商品均可通过第三方机构进行验证。例如,在天虹北京超市内就设有肉菜可追溯体系,顾客只需扫码就可以追溯到商品的供应链。再如,实施线下买单线上退款等。

  崔之瑜认为,在如今商品越发标准化的同时,差异化和品质化的服务将是未来重点。这方面,中国企业还有不少发挥的空间。车文焕也介绍,在日本,罗森的服务类型收入高于商品销售金额占比,在中国目前还远非如此,未来将作为重点加以提升。

  ——拥抱新技术,线上线下互动融合。

  吸引消费者,少不了新技术。李燕川介绍,2018年初,超市发在玉泉路店改造时添加了自助收银和自助称重设施,老百姓的体验反馈很好。“我们不能排斥新技术,一定要引进适合使用的东西。科技将助力零售。”他说。

  在赵萍看来,线上对线下赋能,线下企业不断借助互联网技术进行商业业态和服务创新,将带来更好的消费体验。零售业这个连接生产和消费的关键性和基础性产业,也将通过品质服务创新为中国消费持续累积创新点。