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俄罗斯加速布局非洲核电市场

时间:[2019-07-08 ] 信息来源:中电新闻网
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   编者按:不久前,经合组织核能署发布了名为《核电与电力脱碳:挑战与机遇》报告。报告肯定了核能在全球低碳、可持续发展中的地位,并指出,如果能够适应未来市场,核能将在未来电力和工业用热方面发挥重要作用。作为拥有先进核电技术的国家,俄罗斯已经开始布局非洲市场,欲抢占先机。

 
  非洲的经济潜力是巨大的:这片大陆蕴藏着大量的矿藏和能源资源,拥有年轻的人口且数量不断增长,还有迫切需要投资的不发达能源部门。在非洲,大约有三分之二(6.4亿)的人口尚未获得电力供应。
 
  根据非洲开发银行的数据,能源贫困导致了每年GDP(国内生产总值)增长减少了4%。相比之下,俄罗斯的能源工业正在蓬勃发展,其国营核电公司Rosatom在12个国家拥有34个核反应堆的订单,价值高达3000亿美元。
 
  最近,俄罗斯将目光投向了非洲,一些国家已经与克里姆林宫达成协议,另一些国家则正在考虑与之达成协议。
 
  在非洲,目前只有南非在运营一个商业核电站并计划扩大产能。另外还有10个国家处于计划、谈判的不同阶段,包括阿尔及利亚、埃及、加纳、肯尼亚、纳米比亚、尼日利亚、坦桑尼亚、突尼斯、乌干达和赞比亚。
 
  能源贫困是世界最大的不发达大陆的一个重大问题。缺乏可靠且负担得起的能源是发展经济的严重障碍。尽管近年来可再生能源的成本大幅下降,但技术和地理限制阻碍了太阳能和风能的快速推广。此外,非洲的城市化速度比世界其他地区要快得多,该地区的城市年扩张率高达8%,而全球的平均数字为2%,这给现有的能源系统带来了更大的压力。
 
  非洲大陆的潜力为核电在这里积极发展提供了机会。虽然目前非洲只有一个商业核电站,但很多国家表达了希望建设核电的意愿。俄罗斯的核电对缺乏核技术的非洲国家尤其有吸引力,因为俄罗斯在核设施的融资、建设和运营方面提供了全面的报价。
 
  这种互补优势让俄罗斯核电布局非洲成为可能。去年,俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫访问撒哈拉以南非洲地区,目的不仅仅在于与这些国家加强双边关系,还在于与其讨论和平利用核能的前景。
 
  俄罗斯至少正在与16个非洲国家谈判核能合作,涵盖了谈判的各个阶段。这些讨论范围从尚处于起步阶段的项目(安哥拉和埃塞俄比亚),到更加充实的协议(尼日利亚和苏丹),再到更加成熟的合同,例如2013年与埃及达成的建设4座核反应堆的合同。目前,Rosatom正在试验一项名为“自建-经营”的合同,根据合同,核电站的所有权仍在俄罗斯手中,而生产的能源则出售给东道国。这种新型合同正吸引着一些缺乏建设融资手段的非洲国家。在某些情况下,东道国的矿产资源可作为任何债务的保证金。
 
  俄罗斯的协议对缺乏必要基础设施的国家也很有吸引力,因为莫斯科回收了核废料,这意味着东道国不必担心核废料储存的问题。
 
  俄罗斯正在重新利用其包括外交、能源和安全在内的成功战略。非洲大陆的相对不稳定和对廉价能源的需求使俄罗斯有了很好的机会,该国正在扩大全球业务,为能源等关键行业寻找新的市场。
 
  争夺全球核电市场的不止俄罗斯。
 
  同样是核电大国,美国也希望能将自身先进的技术输出,实现双赢。特朗普担任美国总统后,把振兴核工业提上日程并进行了一系列努力,其中包括在沙特阿拉伯建立两座核反应堆。
 
  长期以来,为了实现能源结构多元化,石油王国沙特阿拉伯一直对建设核电站充满兴趣;加之沙特的电力需求不断增长,每年可达到8%~10%,沙特希望在2032年之前实现核能占比15%。
 
  去年,沙特将美国、俄罗斯、中国、法国和韩国列为核电项目的潜在供应商。但目前美国与沙特的谈判因种种利益纠纷已经中断,何时重启是未知数。
 
  俄罗斯Rosatom为了拓展阿拉伯地区的核电市场,已经在迪拜设立办事处,并强化了与沙特的能源领域合作。
 
  从俄罗斯的角度来看,制裁和与西方关系的恶化增加了改善与世界其他地区关系的必要性。这一次的合作不是意识形态驱动的,而是增加影响力的需要、以及俄罗斯作为全球大国的地位所驱动的。
 
  核能是一个显而易见的好选择,因为俄罗斯是核技术的全球领导者之一。
 
  该国处理世界7%的铀生产、20%的铀转化、45%的铀浓缩以及25%的全球核电站建设活动。除了向非洲提供必要的技术、增加财政收入、扩大国家影响力以外,俄罗斯还有另外一个目的:非洲大陆的马拉维、尼日尔和南非也是世界上最大的铀矿床所在地,如果俄罗斯想要保持在全球的地位,获取这些资源是至关重要的。
 
  毫无疑问,非洲急需电力来发展经济、实现工业化。然而,一些批评人士认为,俄罗斯在一些政局不稳定的国家发展核电可能会构成威胁,因为这些国家的机构薄弱,政府不稳定。
 
  俄罗斯的核战略将在非洲、亚洲的发展中国家完成第一批核电站建设后进行测试。这些设施的使用寿命长达数十年,需要更加适当和全面的安全运营,以便为数百万人提供电力。